Pot Odds or the importance of the pot size for your decision

Pot Odds are the relation between the size of the bet I have to post to stay in a game and the size of the pot. The relation between bet size, pot size and probability will be explained as simple as possible for beginners.

Let’s assume you have to pay 1 $ for a call, the size of the pot at the end of the round would be 6 $. The pot odds are then 1/6 = 16,67 %. If I had a hand with 6 outs, the probability of a hit with the next card would be 6/47 = 12,77%. If you played this hand 100 times, in total you would win less when you hit, than you loose in all the cases where you do not hit. So from the mathematical side, you have a negative expectation and you should not call, but fold.

If we took the 2nd example from the previous chapter where you had 12 Outs, it would look very differently: probability of a hit is 25,53% against Pot odds of 16,67 – your expectation is positive and you should call or even raise.

In the advanced player section of the forum you will find a list similar to the one on page 13 that tells you how big the pot must be to justify the calling of bets of various sizes.

This does not take into account the fact that your position is important for the decision. If you are to act early, players behind you might raise after you called. Then the above calculation would have to be redone, since now you have to pay 2 bets for the privilege to see the next card, and the pot size may not have increased accordingly. So if you knew that somebody will raise after you, you might want to fold if the decision to fold or call one bet was already a close one.